It has happened, just as we warned in our article on November 22nd: The geopolitical fuse in Latin America has been lit. What began as saber-rattling has turned into bitter reality. US forces have conducted targeted strikes against the regime of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.
But behind the official headlines of "counter-terrorism" and "restoring democracy" lies a hard-nosed geostrategic chess game. It represents a battle for control of the world's largest oil reserves, the pushback of Chinese and Russian influence, and a fatal signal to the rest of the world. For investors, this means one thing: Uncertainty is back – and with it, the hour of precious metals.
The US operation differs fundamentally from the images we see coming out of Ukraine. While Russia grinds itself down in a grueling, years-long war of attrition, the US demonstrated military dominance through a swift, precise "decapitation strike" utilizing special forces and drones. The message to the Kremlin is clear: We don't need mass armies; we have precision.
According to security sources and reports from Tagesschau, the sequence of that fateful night can now be reconstructed. Operation "Southern Spear" followed a precise military script that relied on speed and surprise:
The entire kinetic phase of the operation lasted less than four hours. The Venezuelan armed forces, confronted with a technologically vastly superior adversary, were barely able to offer resistance.
The timing is particularly explosive. According to reports, Maduro received Qiu Xiaoqi, Special Envoy of Chinese President Xi Jinping, at the Miraflores Palace just hours before the strikes. Maduro proudly announced on Telegram the "strengthening of strategic relationships."
That Donald Trump gave the order to attack while a high-ranking Chinese delegation was on the ground (or had just departed) is no coincidence. It is a diplomatic humiliation of the highest order and a clear signal to Beijing: Latin America is our backyard, and your investments here are not safe.
Despite US reports of success, the situation on the ground is highly complex. Venezuela is infiltrated by Cuban agents and elite units. For Cuba, this is a matter of naked survival:
These forces could prevent a swift regime change as long as the US does not deploy massive "Boots on the Ground" – a scenario Trump has thus far sought to avoid.
The situation is volatile. We see three potential paths for the coming weeks:
| Scenario | Description | Probability & Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Democratic Transition | The opposition takes the lead with US support. Cuban forces withdraw. Venezuela opens up to the West. | Low. The resistance from deep-rooted power structures (Cartel de los Soles) is too great. |
| 2. The "Trump Deal" | The regime (or parts of the military) remains in power but cooperates fully with the US. Trump prioritizes oil access over human rights. | Medium to High. This would secure oil flow and confirm the US as hegemon. |
| 3. The "Libya Scenario" | Parts of the military, militias, and Cubans go underground. Guerrilla warfare and attacks on oil infrastructure. Venezuela becomes a "Failed State." | Medium. The most dangerous scenario for the global economy. Long-term instability would ensue. |
Interestingly, the oil price initially fell following the strikes. Why? The market is pricing in the expectation that the US will now force direct access to Venezuelan reserves, drastically increasing supply. An oversupply of oil strengthens the US Dollar and puts massive economic pressure on geopolitical rivals like Russia.
But the price for this is high: The open breach of international law creates global uncertainty. If the US can topple a government to secure resources, who is safe? In Tehran, events are likely being watched with the highest state of alert. Such a precedent drastically increases the risk of further conflicts worldwide.
Even if falling oil prices dampen inflation in the short term, the geopolitical risk premium has skyrocketed. We are witnessing a world where borders and sovereignty count for less than resources and power projection.
It is precisely in such phases that Gold proves its strength. It is not a government promise and does not depend on the stability of an oil deal. Should Scenario 3 (Civil War) occur, or if the conflict spills over into other regions, Gold will continue to gain massive value as the ultimate "Safe Haven."
Do not be deceived by short-term movements in the stock markets. The world has become a more uncertain place today. Use the Spargold App to secure your wealth with physical gold and silver against these unpredictable geopolitical risks. In a world of chaos, gold is the only constant.
Stay vigilant
Yours, Nils Gregersen
