Oil prices are falling, and an Iran deal is drawing closer: Brent crude lost around two percent on September 25, 2026, trading at 98.42 US dollars per barrel – well below the wartime highs. What does this mean for gold, silver, and platinum? The short answer: The geopolitical risk premium is melting away, but structural drivers remain intact. Those who understand the connections maintain a clear overview.
For weeks, negotiators from the US and Iran have been discussing a "phased agreement" to end the confrontation in the Persian Gulf. The central point: Iran could allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz again if Washington ends its naval blockade. This hope alone caused Brent to fall to 98.42 USD/barrel (–2.06%) and WTI to 92.62 USD/barrel (–2.26%) on September 25, 2026 (Source: wallstreet-online.de, 09/25/2026).
This is not the first time: As early as June 17, 2026, both sides agreed on a letter of intent – which, however, quickly collapsed when fighting flared up again. Iran's President Pezeshkian is pushing for implementation this time before the US midterm elections. Analysts nevertheless warn of "significant political risk".
The Iran war had embedded a noticeable crisis premium into the gold price. Investors bought gold as a safe haven – fear of Hormuz, supply disruptions, escalation scenarios. As a peace agreement draws closer, this exact premium is being priced out. Market commentators are already observing that the gold price is "treading water" and is in a consolidation phase (Source: finanzen.ch, 09/24/2026).
Falling oil prices mean lower energy costs – and thus less inflationary pressure. This changes expectations for monetary policy: If the US Federal Reserve (Fed) needs to apply the brakes less forcefully, real interest rates will rise less significantly. Lower real interest rates are historically positive for gold, which itself yields no ongoing returns.
The Fed last raised its benchmark interest rate on September 16, 2026, by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% – the first increase since July 2023. 16 out of 18 FOMC members expect at least one further hike (Source: cnbc.com, 09/16/2026). A significantly falling oil price could shorten this path – and thus give gold room to move.
Gold and the dollar usually move in opposite directions: A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for international buyers. Higher US benchmark rates support the dollar; however, less inflationary pressure (due to cheaper oil) could dampen interest rate expectations and slightly weaken the dollar. The EUR/USD rate was around 1.146 in mid-September 2026 (1 USD = 0.8726 EUR, Source: gold.de, 09/18/2026). Every movement in this ratio directly impacts the gold price quoted in euros.
Beyond Iran diplomacy, central banks are buying gold at a pace that sets historical standards: In the second quarter of 2026, central banks worldwide acquired 288.9 tons of gold – an increase of 62.4% compared to the same quarter of the previous year and the strongest Q2 increase ever recorded by the World Gold Council (Source: gold.de / World Gold Council, Q2 2026). Poland led with 51 tons, China with 33 tons. A survey of 74 central banks showed that 45% plan further purchases – the highest proportion since WGC surveys began in 2018 (Source: Bloomberg / World Gold Council, 06/16/2026).
This structural buyer is likely to cushion short-term weaknesses, regardless of whether the Iran deal holds or fails.
| Metal | Price (USD/oz) | Price (EUR/oz) | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (XAU) | ~4,380 | ~3,822 | 09/18/2026 | gold.de |
| Silver (XAG) | 66.76 | ~58.30 | 09/22/2026 | gold.de |
| Platinum (XPT) | 1,748.50 | 1,537.20 | 09/24/2026 | gold.de |
| Brent Oil | 98.42/Barrel | — | 09/25/2026 | wallstreet-online.de |
Silver reacts differently to an Iran deal scenario than gold: It is approximately 60% an industrial metal, with the remainder allocated to jewelry, coins, and bars. Lower energy costs (due to cheaper oil) reduce the production costs of silver-intensive industries – a subtle tailwind.
At the same time, silver is struggling with a structural shift in the solar industry: Photovoltaic demand fell by around 19% in 2026 to approximately 151 million ounces because Chinese manufacturers like LONGi began switching to copper-based contacts (thrifting) starting in the second quarter of 2026 (Source: Silver Institute / boerse-express.com). This makes silver somewhat less dependent on the solar boom narrative.
Nevertheless, the supply picture remains tight: The Silver Institute expects the sixth consecutive supply deficit of around 46 million ounces for 2026. Total industrial demand is exceeding 720 million ounces for the first time – driven by data centers, AI hardware, and the automotive sector (Source: Silver Institute). Structurally, silver is therefore well-supported, even if the easing of tensions in Iran dampens speculative demand in the short term.
Platinum was quoted at 1,748.50 USD per troy ounce on September 24, 2026 (1,537.20 EUR, Source: edelmetalle.de). This represents an annual loss of around 20% in US dollars – significantly more than gold or silver.
The decline in oil prices affects platinum in two ways: Cheaper gasoline and diesel could temporarily slow the transition to hydrogen vehicles – thereby dampening the narrative for platinum in fuel cells. On the other hand, demand for catalytic converters in diesel and gasoline engines remains stable as long as internal combustion technology is not replaced faster than expected. The annual development in 2026 shows that platinum has so far received no clear impulses from either geopolitics or industry – it could therefore remain in a sideways movement as a low-valued metal.
| Scenario | Oil Price | Gold | Silver | Platinum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran deal succeeds completely Hormuz open, sanctions eased |
Falls further toward 80–85 USD | Risk premium gone → Consolidation; central banks support | Industrially supported; deficit remains → neutral to slightly positive | Sideways; hydrogen narrative dampened |
| Negotiations fail again As in June 2026 |
Recovers quickly to 110–120 USD | Risk premium returns → Increase | Safe-haven component strengthens; deficit remains | Weak; crisis premium flows primarily into gold |
| Deal + further Fed hikes Inflation persistent despite oil decline |
Low, but core prices remain high | Strong dollar weighs → Pressure on USD price; EUR price more stable | Industrial demand stable; slight weakness possible | Remains under pressure |
A falling oil price reduces inflation expectations and thus the attractiveness of gold as an inflation hedge. At the same time, an Iran deal signals easing geopolitical tensions – and thus less need for a safe haven. Both effects can weigh on gold in the short term but are not permanently dominant as long as structural buyers like central banks remain active.
Demand from central banks (288.9 tons in Q2 2026 alone), dollar weakness amid falling US interest rate expectations, high global government debt, and ongoing currency risks in emerging markets. These factors do not react to a single peace treaty.
Solar demand only accounts for part of the total market. Data centers, AI hardware, and the automotive industry partially compensate for the decline – and the supply deficit (the sixth in a row) supports the price structurally. However, silver is more volatile than gold and reacts more strongly to economic downturns.
With an annual loss of around 20% in USD (as of 09/24/2026), platinum has lagged significantly behind gold and silver. The gold-platinum ratio is historically high – making platinum appear relatively cheap. Whether this leads to a catch-up rally depends largely on the expansion of the hydrogen economy and demand from the automotive industry.
Energy accounts for around 10–12% of the consumer price basket in the Eurozone. A permanent decrease in the oil price of 10 USD per barrel can push headline inflation down by around 0.3–0.5 percentage points – enough to reduce pressure on the ECB and Fed. This would be positive for gold in the medium to long term, as it shines when real interest rates are lower.
All price information refers to the status as of September 25, 2026. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
