60.77 Dollars.
That is where silver ended trading on Friday.
And of all times, an appointment is approaching that could significantly move the market:
That is when the USA will publish its new inflation data.
Some market observers believe movements toward:
70 Dollars
or:
54 Dollars
are possible.
In extreme cases, even prices below:
50 Dollars
are being discussed.
Can a single inflation report really decide this?
The short answer:
Silver has been moving around this mark for some time.
Recently, declines were caught at approximately 58.5 dollars.
Advances failed in the region around 62.5 dollars.
This makes 60 dollars technically interesting from a chart perspective.
But:
A metal does not know that a round number appears on our screen.
Therefore, 60 dollars is not an economic constant of nature.
They are:
And psychological marks can be surprisingly important in financial markets.
US consumer prices for September will be released on Wednesday.
The previous August figures:
+3.4% year-on-year.
Core inflation:
+2.4%. Bureau of Labor Statistics
According to Reuters, economists currently expect for September approximately:
3.7% headline inflation
and:
2.5% core inflation. Reuters
An upside surprise could immediately change the markets.
Because the Federal Reserve has only just raised interest rates.
In September, it raised the key interest rate by:
25 basis points
to:
And that is exactly why the market is now looking very closely at every new inflation figure.
Because:
It changes expectations about what the Fed will do next.
Inflation higher than expected.
↓
More rate hikes are priced in.
↓
Bond yields rise.
↓
The dollar could strengthen.
↓
Non-interest-bearing precious metals become relatively less attractive.
↓
Gold and silver come under pressure.
That is the short-term side.
And it is real.
Ten-year US Treasuries are now yielding over five percent.
For a metal that pays no ongoing yield, this is a significant competitor. Reuters
If inflation turns out weaker than expected, the chain could reverse.
Fewer rate hikes.
Falling yields.
Weaker dollar.
More breathing room for precious metals.
This is exactly why the release is likely to be volatile.
But making an equation out of it:
good CPI = Silver 70
bad CPI = Silver 50
would be unreliable.
Markets react to:
deviations from expectations,
positioning,
liquidity,
dollar,
bond yields,
options,
and what is already priced in.
Gold is currently at approximately 4,194 dollars.
Silver at around 60.8 dollars.
This results in a ratio of:
Historically, a value around 60 is often used as a comparison.
From this, one could conclude:
Silver is cheap relative to gold.
But caution.
Earlier this year, the gold-silver ratio temporarily fell below:
50.
At that time, silver had risen above 100 dollars. The Silver Institute
The ratio can remain in completely different ranges for decades.
It therefore says something about how two metals are valued relative to each other.
It does not say:
which metal will rise tomorrow.
Not:
60 dollars.
Not:
But:
This is how large the deficit in the global silver market is expected to be in 2026. The Silver Institute
This means:
Demand is expected to once again exceed the newly available supply.
For the:
This is not a CPI story.
For coins and bars, the Silver Institute expects:
To:
227 million ounces. The Silver Institute
Supply, on the other hand, is expected to rise by only:
1.5%
This is fundamentally an interesting constellation.
But here, too, the following applies:
Deficits can be offset by existing inventories.
And high prices change demand.
Here is an important counterpoint to the general silver euphoria.
Silver is needed in:
electronics,
cars,
solar technology,
data centers,
power grids
and many other applications.
AI and data centers are creating new demand.
But at the same time, something else is happening:
And companies react to high prices.
They economize on material.
They develop new production processes.
They partially replace silver.
This is particularly evident in the solar industry.
Globally, more solar systems continue to be installed.
Nevertheless, the Silver Institute expects a decline in industrial silver processing in 2026 of:
To approximately:
650 million ounces. The Silver Institute
The main reason:
Thrifting and substitution in photovoltaics.
This creates a fascinating competition.
AI.
Data centers.
Electrification.
Cars.
Grid infrastructure.
Investment demand.
Thrifting.
Substitution.
Recycling.
Price sensitivity.
And that is exactly where much more is decided in the long term than on a single Wednesday.
Gold is predominantly perceived as a monetary or investment asset.
Silver is different.
It is simultaneously:
and:
When investors fear inflation or currency risks, silver can benefit.
If, at the same time, industry weakens or replaces material, silver can face headwinds.
And that is why silver is often:
Because in the short term, several things are converging at once.
US CPI on Wednesday.
Beige Book on the same day.
Producer prices on Thursday.
Fed meeting at the end of October.
Ten-year Treasury yields above five percent.
And silver exactly at a psychologically important mark.
This is a combination from which quite powerful price movements can arise.
That is exactly the point that should not be forgotten amidst all the short-term excitement.
On Wednesday, the silver price can:
rise.
fall.
perhaps even very sharply.
But the publication does not immediately change:
the number of silver mines,
the production volume,
the inventory levels,
solar technology,
the demand for electrification
or physical investment demand.
Inflation.
Fed.
Dollar.
Yields.
Chart technicals.
Supply.
Mine production.
Recycling.
Industry.
Substitution.
Investment demand.
And:
six consecutive years of deficit.
Both are important.
But they answer different questions.
Anyone who buys silver because they believe:
a good inflation figure will come on Wednesday and silver will rise to 70 dollars,
is ultimately making a short-term speculation.
Those who hold silver as part of a precious metal portfolio ask different questions.
How is supply developing?
How strong will industrial demand remain?
How important will silver become in electrification and digitalization?
How much physical investment demand will arise?
And:
Perhaps that is exactly the most important statement.
Silver possesses similar monetary properties.
But additionally, a large industrial component.
Therefore, one should not simply multiply silver by gold or use a gold-silver ratio as a price target.
The metal has its own story.
And it can be significantly wilder.
But not whether silver remains scarce in the long term.
This question is decided in completely different places:
in mines,
in factories,
in solar cells,
in data centers,
in recycling plants
and in the vaults of investors.
Perhaps, therefore, the most interesting question is not:
But:
That is exactly where the long-term silver story lies.
Stay farsighted.
Yours,
Helge Peter Ippensen
