The MSCI World ETF is considered the „Holy Grail“ of passive investing. Financial influencers, bank advisors, and almost every financial guide recommend it as the ultimate „all-round care-free“ solution for wealth accumulation. The thesis sounds simple: you buy the whole world and profit from global economic growth.
But under the hood of this popular index, risks are brewing that many investors underestimate. Is the MSCI World really as safe as everyone claims? Or are we blindly walking into a „passive bubble“? In this article, we highlight the downsides of the world ETF and point out alternatives that make your portfolio crisis-proof.
The name „MSCI World“ suggests a broad diversification across the entire globe. Those who invest here often believe they have optimally diversified their risk. However, a look at the current factsheet (as of late 2024) shows a completely different picture.
The share of US stocks in the MSCI World is now over 70 percent. For comparison: before the 2008 financial crisis, this value was still below 50 percent. In fact, by buying an MSCI World ETF, you are not purchasing a world portfolio, but a US fund with a small addition of European and Japanese stocks.
The risk: Should the US economy weaken or the US dollar lose massive value against the Euro, this will hit your supposedly „global“ portfolio with full force. Geographical diversification, which is intended to protect investors from the downturn of a single nation, is hardly present anymore.
Even more dramatic is the concentration on a few individual stocks. The 10 largest positions in the MSCI World now account for around 27 to 28 percent of the total index weight. This means: a quarter of your money is tied up in a handful of companies.
These top holdings consist almost exclusively of US tech giants such as:
Experts warn of an enormous „bubble risk“ in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI). The valuations of these companies are astronomically high. Should the AI euphoria suffer a setback or tech stocks undergo a correction (as during the Dotcom-Crash in 2000), it will pull the entire MSCI World down. Those who believe they are broadly diversified are, in truth, extremely dependent on the mood of Silicon Valley.
Michael Burry, the investor who became famous through the film The Big Short for predicting the 2008 real estate crisis, has been warning of an ETF bubble for years.
His thesis: due to the massive inflow into passive ETFs, investors' money flows blindly into the largest companies without real price discovery taking place. This artificially inflates the valuations of large corporations, while smaller companies („Small Caps“) are left behind. If the sentiment shifts and everyone wants to head for the „emergency exit“ at the same time—meaning selling their ETF shares—liquidity could dry up and prices could collapse more dramatically than historical models predict.
Anyone saving for retirement, children, or grandchildren with the MSCI World must think in terms of decades. This is where the greatest macroeconomic risk comes into play: the national debt of the USA.
The USA is sitting on a mountain of debt that is growing exponentially. Forecasts suggest that debt could rise to over 130% of GDP in the next 10 to 20 years. Historically, there are often only two ways out for highly indebted states:
For you as a Euro investor, scenario 2 represents a massive currency risk. If the US dollar loses purchasing power in the long term, the real return on your US-heavy ETF melts away. What good is an 8% price gain in US dollars if the dollar simultaneously loses 10% in value?
The MSCI World is not a bad product, but it is not the risk-free panacea it is often sold as. Criticism from experts and media outlets such as Handelsblatt or ExtraETF is justified: the US and tech cluster risk is real.
To make your portfolio truly „weatherproof,“ you should look beyond the horizon of the MSCI World:
Numbers do not lie—but they tell a different story depending on the time period. A look at the performance of recent years shows: those who relied solely on the MSCI World earned solid returns, but true "safety anchors" like gold have often performed surprisingly strongly during times of crisis and over medium-term periods.
Here is a comparison of the total return (in Euro) over various periods:
| Asset / ETF | 1 Year | 5 Years (Total) | 10 Years (Total) | Risk Profile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSCI World ETF | approx. +20 % | approx. +85 % | approx. +160 % | High (Stock market, US focus) |
| S&P 500 (USA) | approx. +25 % | approx. +115 % | approx. +245 % | Very High (USA only, tech-heavy) |
| Gold (in Euro) | approx. +44 % | approx. +135 % | approx. +260 % | Medium (Currency protection) |
| Silver (in Euro) | approx. +66 % | approx. +140 % | approx. +120 % | High (Volatile, industrial metal) |
| Bitcoin | approx. +70 % | approx. +950 % | > 10,000 % | Extreme (Risk of total loss) |
*Note: Values are historical approximations (in Euro) and do not include purchase fees or taxes. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Especially in times of record debt and tech bubbles, the true value of gold and silver becomes apparent. Unlike stocks or ETFs, physical precious metals have no counterparty risk. They cannot go bankrupt and have been the proven protection against monetary debasement and state debt orgies for millennia.
While the MSCI World lives on the promises of the future (AI, tech growth), gold is the insurance in case those promises are not kept. A healthy allocation of precious metals in your portfolio provides the stability that a pure stock portfolio can no longer guarantee today.
Stay far-sighted,
Yours, Nils Gregersen
