Anyone who observes gold knows this sentence: “Now it is too expensive.” The sentence sounds logical because it clings to one point: the current price. However, the price alone says little about whether gold is currently “expensive” or simply “high.” This is because gold moves in waves, not in straight lines. After strong increases, corrections are normal, sometimes even necessary for a trend to remain healthy.
The timing is intriguing: In mid-February 2026, the gold price in euros for one troy ounce was temporarily around 4,254 euros (as of the morning of February 19). On February 20, gold was traded internationally at around 5,047 US dollars per ounce, after weaker US economic data and political uncertainty supported demand.
This seems contradictory, but it is not. Gold can correct in the short term and still rise in the long term. The decisive question is therefore not “Is gold currently expensive?” but rather: Which forces are driving the price and how does gold fit into one's own asset structure?
Gold does not react to headlines, but to what headlines trigger in the capital markets: confidence, liquidity, interest rates, risk appetite. Currently, several factors are coming together.
A key driver is interest rates and real yields. In the USA, the yield on the 10-year government bond was recently around 4.09 percent (as of February 18, 2026). Such levels are relevant for gold because gold does not pay ongoing interest. The more attractive safe interest-bearing investments become, the more gold will have to be “competitive” in the short term – usually through setbacks or sideways phases. Conversely, even signals that interest rates could fall in the future are enough to push gold forward again.
Europe also plays a role. The ECB left key interest rates unchanged at the beginning of February 2026; the deposit rate is 2.00 percent, and the main refinancing rate is 2.15 percent. More stable interest rates take the pressure off some markets, but they do not solve the fundamental issue: many investors continue to seek tangible assets as a supplement to classic cash and bond positions.
In addition: Geopolitical uncertainty acts as an amplifier. Reuters reported on February 20 that gold was also supported by international tensions and the market's reaction to political decisions. In such phases, it often becomes clear why gold in a portfolio is less of a “bet-on-the-price” instrument and more of a stability component.
Many people only buy gold when it seems “without alternative” in public perception. This is human, but expensive. Precisely because gold runs in cycles, the psychological error is almost always the same: one waits for the perfect low point – and thereby misses the structured accumulation.
The correction is not an opponent of the trend, but part of the trend. Those who view gold only as a speculative object experience setbacks as stress. Those who understand gold as a strategic component recognize setbacks as a phase in which to review positions, balance quotas, and make decisions according to a plan rather than based on emotion.
Since the end of Bretton Woods in the early 1970s, gold has been freely fluctuating. This freedom brings volatility, but also a clear logic: gold reacts to the stability of monetary value and confidence. Whenever inflationary phases, debt issues, or systemic risks dominate, attention and demand increase. The price is then not just a number, but a reflection of an environment.
This is exactly why the recurring debate “Buy or wait?” is so treacherous. It pretends there are only two buttons: now or later. In practice, the better alternative is usually a third way: structured instead of impulsive.
To turn “too expensive” into a meaningful decision, a sober look at the variables visible in 2026 helps: a very high dollar price per ounce around 5,047 USD on February 20, a euro price around 4,254 euros per troy ounce on the morning of February 19, US yields around 4.09 percent (10-year), and an ECB deposit rate of 2.00 percent. This is an environment in which gold receives both tailwinds and headwinds – depending on whether risk or interest rate dominance is currently setting the tone.
The portfolio perspective is therefore decisive: those who already have a defined precious metal quota often use corrections for rebalancing rather than for “betting on the next jump.” Those who do not yet have a quota at all do not have to find the perfect day, but rather an entry point that fits their own liquidity and risk tolerance.
| Influencing Factor (2026) | Typical Effect on Gold | Why This is Relevant |
|---|---|---|
| US yields around 4.09% (10-year, recent) | can act as a short-term drag | Higher yields increase the opportunity costs of non-interest-bearing gold |
| ECB deposit rate 2.00% (Feb. 2026) | rather neutral to slightly supportive | More stable Euro interest rates influence the EUR gold price via exchange rates and risk appetite |
| Geopolitical uncertainty, political decisions (Feb. 2026) | supportive | Risk events increase the demand for “safe havens” |
| High price: approx. 5,047 USD/oz (Feb. 20, 2026) | increases risk of correction | After strong runs, profit-taking increases without necessarily breaking the trend |
| Euro price: approx. 4,254 EUR/oz (Feb. 19, morning) | signals strong Euro valuation | In Euro, gold can act differently than in USD due to FX movements |
Gold will not rise every month in 2026 either. And there will be corrections, especially after strong movements. Those who wait for gold to “no longer be expensive” will often find: the next movement begins before the feeling of “cheap” returns.
The more robust strategy is to treat gold not as a headline topic, but as a building block. Price is a signal. Structure is the decision.
Maintain a long-term perspective
Yours, Helge Peter Ippensen
