Silver Price Forecast 2026–2035: China Restrictions & Shortages

It is late December 2025, and the precious metals markets are making history. Investors who hesitated a year ago are now looking at the charts in disbelief: Silver has stepped out of Gold's shadow and staged an impressive rally. With a current price of $79.25 USD (approx. €67.36 EUR) per troy ounce, the white metal has left many conservative estimates far behind.

But the most important question for investors now is: Is this the peak, or is silver just igniting the next stage? In this article, we analyze the current situation at the turn of the year 2025/2026 and venture a detailed outlook through to the year 2035.

Market Analysis: Why Silver is Near $80

The current price surge is not a surprise but the result of a perfect storm that has been building for years. The following factors support the current price level of around 67 Euros:

• Industrial Scarcity: Inventories at major exchanges (COMEX, LBMA) are at historic lows. The solar, electric vehicle, and AI industries are literally sucking up the physical supply.
• Currency Weakness: With the EUR/USD exchange rate at 1.17, many institutional investors are fleeing fiat currency into hard assets.
• Geopolitics: Silver is currently serving increasingly as a "Safe Haven" alongside Gold.

🇨🇳 China Tightens the Grip: Export Restrictions Starting Jan 1, 2026

Adding to the already tense market situation, a new report from Asia is causing shockwaves. China, which controls a significant portion of global silver refining, will enforce strict government licenses for all silver exports starting January 1, 2026.

The timing could hardly be worse for the global economy. After the silver price nearly doubled since May from around $38 USD to over $74 USD, this measure threatens to create an artificial supply shortage. Specifically, these restrictions mean:

• Severely tightened supply bottlenecks for the West.
• Even higher costs for the energy transition.
• Potential production halts in green tech manufacturing worldwide.

Red Alert in Silicon Valley: Elon Musk Warns of Shortages

Just how serious the situation is—due to the combination of market demand and China's export policy—is illustrated by a recent post on X (formerly Twitter) by Elon Musk. The tech billionaire expressed concern over exploding prices and industrial availability:

 

Musk's concern is well-founded. His companies are critically dependent on the conductivity of the white metal:

• Tesla: Every electric vehicle requires approximately 25 to 50 grams of silver for the battery management system and electronic contacts. Tesla's Solar Roof tiles are also massive silver consumers.
• SpaceX: In aerospace, there is no substitute for silver. The avionics of Starships and satellites must withstand extreme conditions, achievable only through corrosion-resistant silver contacts.
• Optimus Robot: The new generation of humanoid robots relies on highly complex actuators and sensors that would lack sufficient responsiveness without silver.

When giants like Tesla publicly warn of shortages, it indicates that the battle for remaining resources is already raging behind the scenes.

Short-Term Forecast: The Year 2026

The momentum remains unbroken. Analysts believe that the psychologically important $100 USD mark could fall as early as next year. High volatility offers opportunities but also carries risks for short-term traders.

According to current models (based on data from PriceForecast and analyst estimates), 2026 could develop as follows:

• Q1/Q2 2026: Consolidation at high levels between $75 USD and $85 USD.
• Summer 2026: Renewed rise driven by industrial demand (photovoltaic production cycles).
• End of 2026: In a bullish scenario, a closing price of nearly $109.00 USD is possible. This would correspond to a further increase of approx. 37% compared to today's level.

Long-Term Silver Price Forecast to 2035

Let's look into the distant future. The energy transition is a long-term process that will last well into the 2030s. Silver is the metal of electrification – without silver, there is no efficient power transmission, no e-mobility, and no 5G/6G networks.

Based on the current price level of ~$79 USD and factoring in inflation data and mining deficits, long-term models (supported by data from CoinPriceForecast among others) paint the following picture:

Note: Forecasts are speculative in nature. Periods exceeding 5 years are subject to significant uncertainties due to technological changes and new mining discoveries.

Scenario 2035: Why Over $300?

A price of over $300 USD may sound fantastic today, but it follows the logic of resource depletion. By 2035, easily accessible silver deposits are expected to be largely exhausted. Recycling will become more important but is expensive. If industry continues to grow at the current pace, silver will be priced not just as a precious metal, but as a rare technology metal.

Conclusion: Physical Ownership as an Anchor

The numbers speak clearly: We are in the midst of a commodity supercycle. The current price of ~€67 EUR is high compared to previous years, but in retrospect from 2035, it might appear as a bargain entry point.

However, what matters is not just the return on paper, but actual control over your wealth. Certificates and paper promises can become worthless in times of crisis.

This is where Spargold comes in. Use current market movements not just for speculation, but for security. Through our app, you can easily purchase physical silver and gold – as real bars and coins. Secure your share of the world's limited resources before industry sweeps the market clean.

Stay farsighted,

Yours, Nils Gregersen