April is drawing to a close, and the financial world is looking toward Moscow with anticipation. What was long considered the untouchable shield of the Russian economy is showing cracks: the Russian central bank has reduced its gold holdings by an impressive 22 tons since the beginning of the year. In February and March alone, tons of the precious metal flowed out of the vaults to support the state treasury, which has been battered by sanctions and war costs.
For years, Russia was the "accumulator" in the gold market. Between 2002 and 2025, more than 1,900 tons of gold were acquired. But the tide has turned. Revenues from the export of oil and gas – once the engine of the Russian economy – are collapsing dramatically. Despite high export volumes, price caps and Western sanctions ensure that profits per barrel are steadily shrinking.
Interestingly, the Russian sell-off has left the global gold price cold so far. Experts like Natalia Milchakova even see potential for a recovery toward 5,000 US dollars per ounce. This is primarily because Russia, due to sanctions, delivers its gold mainly to alternative trading hubs such as China, India, or Turkey.
Goldman Sachs remains bullish for 2026 and recently raised its year-end target to 5,400 US dollars. The bank continues to see gold as the ultimate "Safe Haven," especially in times of geopolitical instability.
"The era of massive gold accumulation in Russia seems to be paused for now. Gold is now serving its most original function: as the ultimate liquidity reserve in times of need."
While states like Russia are forced to liquidate their reserves in times of crisis, this demonstrates one thing above all to private investors: Gold has a real, incorruptible value. When paper currencies come under pressure and state budgets falter, gold is the only asset that does not represent someone else's liability.
But you don't have to be a state to prepare like a central bank. Russia's current strategic reduction should be understood as a wake-up call to review your own hedging. While the state sells to plug holes, smart investors use phases of consolidation to build up their holdings.
The geopolitical situation remains volatile, and the importance of tangible assets has never been higher. Whether the gold price corrects in the short term or heads directly toward Goldman Sachs' 5,400-dollar target – physical availability is the decisive factor.
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Stay forward-looking
Yours, Nils Gregersen
