A glance at the current market data reveals: We are witnessing historic days. The gold price has not only reached new all-time highs but has established itself as an indispensable anchor in an increasingly fragile financial world. With a current price of $4,618 USD (approx. €3,959 EUR) per troy ounce, for many investors, the question is no longer if they should buy gold, but rather whether it is too late to enter.
The answer lies in analyzing the drivers: From the Iran crisis to attacks on the US Federal Reserve and the massive loss of trust in the US Dollar. In this article, we highlight developments since 2018 and explain why experts like Goldman Sachs believe the peak is still far off.
At the time of writing (Jan 13, 2026, 2:51 PM), gold is trading at €3,959.30. That represents a year-on-year increase of over 50%. But what is fueling this explosion?
The recent escalation in the Middle East, particularly the uncertainties surrounding Iran, is driving investors in droves toward "safe havens." When missiles fly or trade routes are blocked, capital flees from equities into precious metals.
A critical new factor in 2026 is the political situation in the USA. President Trump is currently aggressively undermining the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed). This creates enormous uncertainty in the markets. When the independence of monetary guardians is questioned, trust in the Dollar suffers—and gold benefits directly as the only currency without counterparty risk.
For a long time, the gold price was controlled via futures markets at the COMEX. However, reports indicate that the COMEX is losing control despite massive margin hikes. Physical demand is so high that "paper sales" can no longer sustainably suppress the price.
To understand the current dynamics, it is worth looking at history. Comparing today to the "pre-crisis era" of 2018 highlights gold's immense purchasing power protection.
| Year | Average Price (approx. USD) | Key Drivers / Events |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1,268 USD | Strong US Dollar, Fed rate hikes, US-China trade war. |
| 2019 | 1,393 USD | Fed Pivot (rate cuts), initial recession fears. |
| 2020 | 1,770 USD | COVID-19 Pandemic, record money printing, first all-time high >2,000 USD. |
| 2021 | 1,799 USD | Inflation rises ("transitory"), consolidation of gold price. |
| 2022 | 1,800 USD | Ukraine war, aggressive rate hikes burden gold in the short term. |
| 2023 | 1,940 USD | Banking crisis (SVB), Central Banks buy gold massively. |
| 2024 | 2,350 USD | Geopolitical tensions, de-dollarization by BRICS nations. |
| 2025 | 3,500 - 4,000 USD | Second inflation wave, loss of trust in fiat money, breaking the 4,000 mark. |
| Jan. 2026 | 4,618 USD | Iran crisis, Trump-Fed conflict, flight to real assets. |
The track record is even more impressive for Euro investors. Since the introduction of the Euro in 2002 until January 2026, the gold price has risen by a staggering 1,098%.
Those who held cash back then have lost massive purchasing power. Those who held gold were able to tenfold their wealth. In the last 5 years alone, gold has recorded an increase of over 160% in Euro terms. This illustrates: Gold is not a short-term speculation, but the ultimate insurance against currency debasement.
Despite the high levels, analysts remain optimistic. Investment bank Goldman Sachs sees the price reaching up to 4,900 US Dollars in the course of 2026. Long-term, analysts at Yardeni Research suggest the price could even target the 10,000 Dollar mark in a "super-cycle" by 2030.
As long as the US debt issue (Debt > 120% of GDP) remains unresolved and geopolitical flashpoints continue to burn, the upward trend remains intact.
The current news—whether it's the Iran crisis or political pressure on the Fed—are warning signs. Paper currencies are subject to political whims; gold is not.
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Stay foresightful
Yours, Nils Gregersen
