January 2026 is drawing to a close, and volatility in the precious metals markets has reached a level that is making even experienced traders sweat. While we were discussing the $70 mark back in December, reality has long since moved on. Events between January 1st and 27th have forced nearly every major bank and analyst to revise their assessments.
Is the current surge sustainable, or is a hard pullback looming? We have compiled data from 10 leading institutions and experts. From Commerzbank's sober analysis to Mike Maloney's "Super Cycle" – here are the month's 10 most critical updates.
Before looking at the specific numbers, it is worth contextualizing the mood. The market is currently divided. On one side, we see institutions like Citigroup and Goldman Sachs abandoning their caution. They are driving the price with new "Buy" ratings, justified by industrial bottlenecks and the so-called "Fear Trade" – the flight from government bonds.
On the other side stand the cautioners like Morgan Stanley or Saxo Bank. They do not deny the uptrend but warn of an overheated "flagpole" on the chart. Their argument: No market moves up in a straight line, and profit-taking is overdue.
This table summarizes the updates released between January 15 and January 27, 2026. Note the massive rise in the "floor" (the lower price limit) compared to last year.
| Analyst / Source | Date (Jan '26) | Target Price | Key Takeaway |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Maloney | Jan 25 | 200 USD+ | "Unstoppable". Historic breakout, no overhead resistance. |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Jan 27 | 150 USD | "Dam break". Dollar collapse drives prices by mid-year. |
| Bank of America | Jan 20 | 135 USD | Deficit alarm. Solar industry is "hoarding" physical silver. |
| Citigroup | Jan 15 | 100-120 USD | "Short Squeeze". Panic buying by industrial users. |
| TD Securities | Jan 19 | 115 USD | Algo-Trading. Computer funds are positioned "maximally long". |
| Goldman Sachs | Jan 22 | 105 USD | "Fear Trade". Upgrade to "Buy", flight to safe havens. |
| FXStreet (Tech) | Jan 27 | 103 USD | Momentum trade. RSI overbought, but trend is extremely strong. |
| Saxo Bank | Jan 24 | 95 USD | Consolidation. Warning of volatility before further gains. |
| Morgan Stanley | Jan 18 | 85 USD | Forming a base. Skeptical of >100$, but floor raised massively. |
| Commerzbank | Jan 19 | ~80 USD | Correction. Rally is "exaggerated", pullback likely. |
The observation by Bank of America is particularly interesting. Analyst Michael Widmer points out that industrial buyers are no longer ordering "Just-in-Time" but are building up inventories ("hoarding"). This drastically exacerbates the already existing deficit. When corporations fear running out of raw materials, price becomes a secondary concern.
TD Securities sheds light on the technical side: The so-called CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors) – computer-driven funds – buy automatically as long as the trend is right. This mechanical buying pressure acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy and could lift the price to $115 in the short term, completely independent of fundamentals.
Carsten Fritsch of Commerzbank remains the most important counter-indicator to the general euphoria. His warning of a pullback to $80 is valuable for investors: It serves as a reminder not to buy blindly into every green candle, but to strategically wait for dips.
In summary: The "floor" for silver has shifted in January 2026 from approx. $60 to $80-85. None of the 10 experts currently see prices below $80 as a realistic scenario. The downside risk appears limited, while the upside potential (short squeeze) remains explosive.
In such a market environment, owning physical precious metals is not just speculation, but wealth protection. When algorithms and banks drive the paper market, the physical bar in your possession is the only constant.
With the Spargold App, you can use these exact market phases to your advantage. Set price alerts, use the pullbacks predicted by Commerzbank to top up, and secure real assets. 2026 has only just begun.
